Stocks this season are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive year as global cotton production continues to exceed mill demand and China’s cotton policies continue to support domestic prices above world prices.

While world stocks are expected to rise 9 percent in 2013/14, the growth continues to occur in China, with a large supply placed in China’s national reserve and unavailable to the rest of the world. These reserve stocks are expected to account for nearly 80 percent of China’s total stocks in 2013/14.

In 2010/11, China’s 21-percent share of global stocks was its lowest in twenty years. By the end of 2013/14, however, China’s share is projected to nearly triple to 62 percent. At the same time, the share of stocks outside of China is forecast to decline for the third consecutive season to 38 percent.